شناسایی رویکردها و مدل‌های پیش بینی عرضه و تقاضای پزشک در نظام سلامت کشورهای OECD

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ،گروه مدیریت و برنامه ریزی آموزشی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، گروه مدیریت و برنامه ریزی آموزشی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان، گروه مدیریت، سیاست گذاری و اقتصاد سلامت ، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان ، کرمان، ایران

4 استادیار، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، گروه مدیریت و برنامه ریزی آموزشی ، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه: هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی رویکردها و مدل‌های پیش بینی عرضه و تقاضای پزشک در نظام سلامت کشورهای منتخبOECD است.
روش‌کار: جست‌وجوی نظام‌مند برای شناسایی پروژه ها و مقالات منتشر شده به زبان انگلیسی بین سال های 2010 تا 2024 در پایگاه‌های اطلاعاتی Sage Publishing ,Web of Science، Scopus، Eric، PubMed Central, OECDانجام شد. 18 پژوهش برای سنتز کیفی بر اساس معیارهای ورود و خروج در نظام سلامت کشورهایOECD انتخاب شدند.
نتایج: بیشترین مدل مورد استفاده برای پیش بینی عرضه و تقاضای پزشک مدل سازی از طریق رشد جمعیت بود. رویکرد غالب در پژوهش ها ، پیش بینی همزمان رویکرد مبتنی بر عرضه و تقاضای پزشک بود . بررسی میزان استفاده از سایر مدل ها نشان داد که 17 % مدل سازی سری زمانی ،17 % مدل سازی رگرسیون ، 12 % مدل سازی FTE پزشکان ، 12 % تکنیک دلفی، 12 % شبیه سازی سیستم دینامیک، 6% ، تکنیک شاخص های حجم کاری نیاز به نیروی انسانی ، 6% مدل کوهورت، 6% شبیه سازی مونت کارلو ، 6% مدل سرشماری ملی از پزشکان فعال ، 6% تکنیک نظرسنجی های ملی و 6% مدل سازی اقتصادسنجی را مورد استفاده قرار داده اند.در پژوهش های بررسی شده 56% از دو روش همزمان ادغام شده مدل سازی جهت پیش بینی عرضه و تقاضای پزشک استفاده شده است.
نتیجه‌گیری: هیچ رویکرد و مدل پذیرفته شده واحدی برای پیش بینی عرضه و تقاضای پزشک به دست نیامد.
کلمات کلیدی: برنامه ریزی نیروی انسانی ، پیش بینی تقاضا، پیش بینی عرضه ، OECD

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying approaches and models for predicting physician supply and demand in the health system of OECD countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Maleki 1
  • Abbas Abbaspour 2
  • Somaye Nouri Hekmat 3
  • Samad Borzoian 4
1 PhD student, Department of Educational Administration and Planning, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Department of Educational Management and Planning, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Health Management, Policy and Economics, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Department of Educational Management and Planning, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: The purpose of this research is to identify approaches and models for predicting the supply and demand of doctors in the health system of selected OECD countries.
Methodology: A systematic search was conducted to identify projects and articles published in English between 2010 and 2024 in Sage Publishing, Web of Science, Scopus, Eric, PubMed Central, OECD databases. 18 studies were selected for qualitative synthesis based on entry and exit criteria in the health system of OECD countries.
Results: The most used model for predicting the supply and demand of doctors was modeling through population growth. The dominant approach in the researches was the simultaneous prediction of the approach based on the supply and demand of doctors. Examining the amount of use of other models showed that 17% time series modeling, 17% regression modeling, 12% FTE modeling of doctors, 12% Delphi technique, 12% dynamic system simulation, 6% workload index technique 6% cohort model, 6% Monte Carlo simulation, 6% national census model of active doctors, 6% national survey technique and 6% econometric modeling have been used in the reviewed researches. 56% of the two integrated modeling methods have been used to predict the supply and demand of doctors.
Conclusion: No single accepted approach and model was found to predict the supply and demand of doctors.
Keywords: manpower planning, demand forecasting, supply forecasting, OECD

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Manpower planning
  • manpower demand forecast
  • manpower supply forecast
  • manpower planning models HHR
  • OECD

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مجله دانشکده پزشکی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی مشهد
دوره 67، شماره 6
بهمن-اسفند1403
بهمن و اسفند 1403
صفحه 1558-1574

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